Nicholas Ambraseys who has been a pioneer on Earthquake Engineering in Europe. Carlos Oliveira stated that four years period for the Lecture may be quite long and his preference was this Lecture to be given in every two years.
Thee ae only two absolute cetainties in life: Whateve task we undetake, no matte how menial o how sophisticated, we ae faced with a lack of cetainty in the outcome!
It is theefoe essential to have a common undestanding of what is meant by uncetainty in elation to ou specific tasks in defining BPMM.
In micobiological laboatoy pactice, we can identify many causes of vaiability, fo instance: The ability of an isolate to give typical eactions on a diagnostic medium; The use of the incoect ingedients in a cultue medium; The consequence of changing bands of commecial media; Use of non-standad conditions in the pepaation, steilisation and use of a cultue medium; Equipment and human eos in weighing, dispensing, pipetting and othe laboatoy activities; The toleance applied to the shelf life of test eagents; The elative skill levels of diffeent technicians; The elative well-being of any technician who is undetaking analyses; and so on, and so on.
These ae but a few tite examples of biological, instumental and pesonal bias that affect the accuacy, pecision and hence the uncetainty of micobiological tests; a situation that constantly faces scientists involved in laboatoy management To intepet popely the esults obtained using any analytical pocedue, whethe physical, chemical o biological, equies caeful consideation of the divese souces of actual o potential eo associated with the esults obtained.
Any analytical esult is influenced by a complex of thee majo eo goups: Random eos, associated with the oiginal sample matix, the analytical test sample, the cultue media, etc; Inheent systematic eos associated with the analytical pocedue; and Modification of the systematic eos due to a paticula laboatoy s envionment and equipment togethe with individual analysts pesonal taits in caying out the test pocedue.
In simple tems, accuacy can be defined as the coectness of a esult, elative to an expected outcome; whilst pecision is a measue of the vaiability of test esults Accuacy is defined ISO This diffes fom the definition given by VIM Repeatability and epoducibility conditions ae paticula sets of exteme stipulated conditions ISO Relationships between tueness, accuacy, pecision and uncetainty in analytical esults AMC, Repoduced by pemission of the Royal Society of Chemisty, London 1.
The concepts of accuacy and tueness must take account of eo and pecision. Uncetainty estimates qv povide a simple way to quantify such needs. Howeve, since in a eal-life situation we neve know what the tue o coect answe is, tueness can be assessed only in a validation-type tial against an accepted efeence value.
This is much moe complex in micobiology than it is in physics, and chemisty. A paamete associated with the esult of a measuement that chaacteises the dispesion of the values that could easonably be attibuted to the measuand.
The tem measuand is a bueaucatic way of saying analyte. Tanslated into simple English this definition can be ewitten, as Uncetainty is a measue of the likely ange of values that is indicated by an analytical esult.
Fo quantitative data e. Such paametes include the standad deviation, the standad eo of the mean o a confidence inteval aound that mean. Measues of epeatability and epoducibility ae the cone stones of estimation of analytical uncetainty.
They ae defined ISO as: Repoducibility is a measue of pecision deived unde epoducibility conditions i.
A valid statement of epoducibility equies specification of the conditions used Intemediate Repoducibility ISO Expanded Uncetainty U is defined as the quantity defining an inteval about a esult of a measuement expected to encompass a lage faction of the distibution of values that could easonably be attibuted to the measuand The Expanded Uncetainty values ae deived by multiplying the SD s with a coveage facto to povide confidence intevals fo epeatability and epoducibility aound the mean value.
Fo qualitative data e. Howeve, othe pocedues e. LOD 50 qv and by binomial analysis of the elative popotions of positive and negative esults in a compaative evaluation of methods see 3.
How is uncetainty estimated? Thee ae two totally diffeent appoaches to the estimation of uncetainty: Essentially this appoach povides a boad indication of the possible level of uncetainty associated with method athe than a measuement; ISO TC34 SC9 consides the appoach always to undeestimate the extent of vaiation since it cannot take into account eithe matixassociated eos o the actual day-to-day vaiation seen in a laboatoy.
Fo 5 Page 5 of 31 these easons, ISO has ecommended that this appoach is not appopiate fo micobiological analyses The top-down appoach is based on statistical analysis of data geneated in inta- o inte-laboatoy collaboative studies on the use of a method to analyze a divesity of matixes.
Howeve Micobiological data do not nomally confom to a nomal distibution, and usually equie mathematical tansfomation pio to statistical analysis. Howeve, it has been agued e. Simila pocedues may be used to estimate intemediate inta-laboatoy epoducibility associated with the use of an analytical pocedue in a single laboatoy.
Even data obtained, fo instance, in laboatoy quality monitoing can be used to povide an estimate of inta-laboatoy 6 Page 6 of 31 epoducibility.
Estimation of uncetainty associated with qualitative e. In taking a sample fo analysis, it is of citical impotance to have knowledge of the pobable distibution of oganisms in the test matix, especially when testing fo oganisms at the limit of detection of a method.
Whilst it may be possible to ensue easonable confomity with a Poisson andom distibution of index oganisms in atificial test matixes, such distibution should not be assumed to occu in natual matixes and equies confimation e. In eal life testing, eoneous decisions can esult fom an assumption that all micooganisms ae distibuted andomly at low level thee ae some well-documented examples whee ove dispesion of oganisms e.Jan 06, · TEN Major Problems Facing By Pakistan Today Islamic Republic of Pakistan was established in , a country of million people, full of natural resources and more than 60 years of independence but still not respected in the world community.
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